• 作者： 彭建文；張金鶚
• 作者服務機構： *四海工商專校不動產經營科 **政治大學地政系
• 中文摘要： The paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. We found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. We also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.
• 英文摘要： 本文以共積檢定與誤差修正模型檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，獲得幾個重要而有趣的結論。首先，不論臺北市或臺北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係將會改變。其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，顯示要解決房地產市場長期不景氣，必須從消化空餘屋著手。至於相關變數對於臺北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於臺北縣，則顯示兩不同次市場本質上的差異。此外，本研究亦發現，臺北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較臺北市快；僅管如此，臺北市和臺北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間，短期時差關係並不明顯，原因可能是房地產市場自1986-1990年的景氣後，已產生結構性變遷。
• 中文關鍵字： real estate cycles; macroeconomic variables; structure change cointegration
• 英文關鍵字： 房地產景氣；總體經濟變數；結構性變遷；共積