• 作者： 白金安; 張金鶚
• 作者服務機構： 國立政治大學地政研究所; 國立政治大學地政系
• 中文摘要： 台灣的房屋預售制度是非常特殊且重要的購屋方式，許多購屋者利用預售制度才得以負擔得起購買房屋，或者進一步利用預售制度進行投機套利行為。而預售屋價格也往往成為住宅市場景氣變動的領先指標，其重要性不可言喻。但是目前在學術上我們對預售屋價格的形成或訂定並不清礎，而且有關預售屋與成屋價差的產生與變化更是缺乏研究。由於預售屋具有遠期交易(Forwards)或期貨(Futures)的特徵，我們是否可利用遠期交易或期貨的理論來解釋預售屋的訂價行為，此乃本文探究的主題。本文將從套利(arbitrage)的觀點來討論預售屋與成屋的價差問題，同時透過正常差價理論(Normal Backwardation Theo-ry)、不偏期貨訂訂價假說(Hypothesis of Unbiased Futures Pricing)與儲存理論(TheStorage Theory)，分析購屋者將會考慮持有成本(carrying charge)，而使得一般預售屋價格高於成屋價格；然而如果進一步考慮購屋者對預售屋交易過程的不確定性風險貼水(riskpremium)及預售屋與及預期景氣變動(expectation of housing cycle)，預售屋與成屋的基差(Basis)將有所不同（可能大於、等於或小於零）。本文最後將建立預售屋的訂價模式，並提供我們過去實證研究結果作為一初步的證據。
• 英文摘要： In Taiwan, the pre-sales housing system is a quite unique and very important method allowing home-buyers to speculate on or buy their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicatorof the housing cycle in the market. There is, however, little knowledge about how and why pre-sales houseprices are decided or what is the relationship between the pre-sales and existing house prices. Since onecharacteristic feature of the pre-sales system is its similarity to forward or futures transactions, it is desiredto determine whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can explain the pre-sales house pricingbehavior. This paper will use an arbitrage viewpoint to discuss the difference (basis) between pre-sales andexisting house prices. According to the normal backwardation theory or the hypothesis of unbiased futurespricing, homebuyers will consider the carrying charges of a pre-sales house, and the price of a pre-saleshouse will be higher than an existing one. However, if homebuyers further consider the risk premium ofpre-sales houses and the expectations of the housing cycle, the basis will be different. This paper willestablish a pre-sales house pricing model for Taiwan and provide past empirical data as preliminary evidence.
• 中文關鍵字： 不偏期貨訂價假說; 成屋; 持有成本; 套利; 預售屋
• 英文關鍵字： --