• 作者： 徐永明
• 作者服務機構： 國立中正大學政治學系暨研究所
• 中文摘要： In this essay, I argue that identity politics in Taiwan are indispensable for individuals coping with an uncertain environment: identification is necessary to reduce uncertainty and to provide guidelines for evaluating related interests, as well as for predicting possible consequences. Assuming that achieving enlightened learning relies on democratic deliberation, I identify this process as the constant theme in the democratization of Taiwan. To construct this individual learning model in a dynamic sense, I first employ mathematical modeling to materialize previous concepts in a consistent and chronological structure. Next, I identify a nonlinear dynamic model confirming these refined behavioral propositions and demonstrating that enlightened learning, manifested as acquisition of a Taiwanese identity, is the rationale behind related political movements. Based on these individual-level understandings, I argue that democratic evolution acts as a self-selection or learning process aggregating the possible paths of further political developments.
• 英文摘要： 本文預設大眾的政治認同是在一個連續的行動過程中形成，並以一個理性的政治學習模型為基準來測量臺灣人認同的形成。這個模型預測下列三個行為的發生：首先，認同是未來取向的，用來指導行動，理解現在與預測未來的。其次，在這個學習過程中，個人是能有效地運用可取得的資訊，像是新取得的知識或菁英的政治說服，作為態度調整與預期未來的基準。最後，在一個動態、整合的個體模型中，本研究發現世代會影響個人對於外在環境變遷的調適差異，年輕世代比年老世代較易於接受新的資訊並據以調整其態度，採取新的臺灣人認同，也就是世代差異的確影響政治認同演化的路徑。
• 中文關鍵字： Bayesian model, rational expectation, nonlinear model, identity politics
• 英文關鍵字： 貝氏定理，理性預期，非線性模型，認同政治