• 作者： 林淑玲；吳壽山；曾正權
• 作者服務機構： *Department of International Trade and Finance, College of Managemat, Fu Jen Catholic University **Institute of Business and Management National Chiao-Tung University
• 中文摘要： This study proposes a modified two-sector model to consider the characteristics of financial markets in Taiwan, in which a backward sector and an advanced sector as well as an organized banking market and a curb market are identified. The model emphasizes that there exists a linear relationship between deposit rate (i.mu.) and loan rate(r) of curb market. That is, i.mu.= 0.9529r-3.8184. Furthermore, the deposit and loan rate of organized market is not substitutes for curb credits, in which are very important issues in Taiwan's financial markets. The current empirical results are quite consistent with the arguments of the McKinnon-Shaw hypotheses and the Gupta & Lensink model, which argued that financial liberalization would encourage greater allocative efficiency. From 1989 to 1990, when the banking law was revised and the ceiling and floor on lending rate were entirely removed, and the Taiwan government started to implement various financial liberalization reforms. The empirical evidences show that higher deposit rates on organized market will shift resources from traditional sector to investment in the modern technological sector, in which result in the improvement of allocative efficiency from -2.035 to 3.345 since 1989. Unfortunately, the allocative efficiency declined dramatically from 12.029 to 3.9 during 1992 and 1993. It shows that deregulation does not always guarantee an improvement in overall allocative efficiency when there exists a curb financial market, like Taiwan. The above phenomena in Taiwan may be attributed to the followings: (a) Due to the misguided interest rate intervention policy by the government, such as the establishment of some sort of credit rationing system, Taiwan's financial markets are not completely deregulated. (b) The oligopoly behavior on the part of the banking and financial intermediate system, and (c) the current existing conditions of a curb sector in Taiwan's financial markets.
• 英文摘要： 本文提出適合一般開發中國家衡量利率自由化效果之一般化模式，以探討利率自由化措 施影響先進部門與傳統部門之資本投資支出﹐是否亦造成配置效率與規模效果之改變，暨驗 算其影響的程度與內涵。由民國70年至85年資料研究結果顯示，利率自由化前（民國70年至78年）與自由化 後（民國79年至85年），實質存放款利率的平均值均無顯著的差異，隱含利率水準的調整 呈現僵固的現象。然而，自由化後兩市場的實質存款與貸款利率之平均值均呈現上升的趨 勢，而變異程度則有減緩的趨勢。在規模效果方面：則呈現顯著的提升，顯示利率自由化後確能充分發揮投資的規模效果。在配置效率方面：利率自由化後，配置效率與實質存款利率 的關聯性顯著地大於利率自由化前，該配置效率的平均值由0.8232625增加到5.67005，表示配置效率效果獲致顯著的提升。顯示放寬利率管制並減少政府干預之後，確能發揮貸款資金 重新配置之功效，提升資金的投資分配效率，亦進一步證明McKinnon & Shaw所主張「促進資本累積假說」之有效性獲致驗證。然而，該配置效率提升的現象並無法持續，反而有逐 漸下跌之趨勢。經複迴歸分析結果顯示，配置效率與實質存款利率的關聯程度呈負相關，即 b4 =-0.3852，此現象亦進一步驗證我國曾以古典Keynes等強迫儲蓄學派之低利率主張為政策。
• 中文關鍵字： deregulation of interest rates, scale effect, allocative efficiency effect, curb market, capital-accumulationaugmenting hypothesis.
• 英文關鍵字： 解除利率管制，規模效果，配置效率，促進資本累積假說，地下金融市場