- 作者: 呂錦隆
- 作者服務機構: 國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所
- 中文摘要: 本研究以高速鐵路為新運具研究對象,利用敘述性偏好法實地調查往來於臺南·臺北問之旅客對高速鐵路轉移傾向之四點量表序數數據(ordinal data),並建立以依序常機模式為基礎之運量轉移傾向(ordered probit)模式,從事分析旅運者對高速鐵路之轉移乘用傾向。此外,研究內容另就轉移抗力、不同模式方法間之比較、及彈性分析等進行討論。 本研究獲致之結果如下:1.以旅次目的與乘用運具種類對旅行成本及旅行時間進行區隔分析之結果良好,顯示從事運量轉移傾向分析時,有必要考慮不同群體對成本及時間的變動感受不同之影響。2.非公務旅次旅客與原乘用非飛機之旅客對高鐵之轉移傾向均較低。3.旅運者對既定使用之運具,明顯存有不願改變之抗力,其中以乘用飛機旅客相對於其他旅客而言,存有之轉移抗力較小。4.在相同的函數指定型式下,二元羅機(binary logit)模式雖有較佳之預測能力,然其較難反應社經變數之影響,並且無法進一步細分轉移傾向程度,及探討序數數據之尺度問題。5.本研究所構建之依序常機運量轉移傾向模式,具有反應運具屬性變動之能力,顯示其具有應用於預測工作或政策分析之價值。
- 英文摘要: This paper discussed travelers’diversion propensity of the proposed new high-speed rail(HSR). Thedata was collected by the stated preferences (SP) approach for the passengers traveling between Tainan andTaipei. This paper applied ordered probit models to fit and analyze the ordered four scale data. In addition toexplore travelers' mode diversion propensity, this paper also discussed the effect of resistance to change, andcompared ordered probit model and logit model. The major fingdings of this paper were as follows: (1)Theresults of segmentation analysis showed the travelers' trip purposes and modes used had significant effects ontheir mode diversion behavior. (2) The diversion propensities of non-business travelers were lower than thoseof business travelers. And the airline passengers had a greater diversion propensities than other mode users.(3) The resistance to change had a significant effect on travelers' diversion decision. The airline passengers hadweakest resistence to change. (4) The predictive power of binary logit model was slightly higher than that ofordered probit model. However, it could not reflect the effects of social-economic attributes and could not dealwith the ordered scale problem. (5)The mode diversion models could reflect the sensitivity of modalattributes.
- 中文關鍵字: 序數數據; 依序常機模式; 敘述性偏好法; 運量轉移傾向; 轉移抗力
- 英文關鍵字: ordinal data; ordered probit model; stated preference; mode diversion propensity; resistance to change