• 作者： 林正祥
• 作者服務機構： 東海大學統計學系
• 中文摘要： Since B. Gompertz developed a model for the relation of aging and mortality rate in the 19th Century, many papers related mortality have been published. In sixties B.L. Strehler and A.S. Mildvan showed that aging is related to the genetic instability and this relation attributes to the different causes of death. By using the principle of thermodynamics, they modified Gompertz model and derived the estimate of genetic instability and environmental factor affect the total mortality rate. Later, J.E. Riggs pointed out the Strehler-Mildvan model is not suitable in some situations and gave a revised model. In this study, we adopt Riggs' method to investigate the effect of the genetic instability and environmental factors on the trend of total mortality rate and the death rate of malignant neoplasm in Taiwan area. We find that from 1961 to 1997, the annual percentage loss of vitality with respect to total mortality for man and women are 2.16% and 1.21%; annual values of C (environmental impact factor) are decreased 19% and 8.50% for man and women. From 1974 to 1997, the annual percentage loss of vitality with respect to malignant neoplasm for man and women are 1.65% and 1.70%; annual values of C are increased 4.73% and 2.10% for man and women. However, statistical test shows annual values of C for malignant neoplasm are increased significantly in man only.
• 英文摘要： 自19世紀B. Gompertz提出人類年齡老化與死亡率間之數學模式，開啟了死亡率研究的新紀元後，許多有關死亡率研究論文不斷地被發表出來，60年代的學者提出一篇非常有意義的文章，認為人類老化和遺傳基因不穩定性有關因而產生不同致命的死因，他們利用熱力學的原理對Gompertz模式做了一些修正，推算出遺傳暨環境因子對死亡率影響之估計值。惟90年代初期有人研究發現此類模式在某些情形下並不適用，因此對其做了一些修正。本文即是利用90年代及發展出之方法來探討臺灣地區近三十年來遺傳暨環境因子對總死亡率及惡性腫瘤影響之趨勢，結果發現，從民國50年至86年，30至80歲男性每年由於遺傳因子對總死亡率之影響所損失的生命力為2.16%，女性則為1.21%，統計檢定顯示外在環境因子對男、女性死亡率之衝擊則是呈現顯著下降之趨勢，男性下降19%，女性則下降了8.50%；從民國63年至86年，30至65歲男性每年受遺傳因子影響因惡性腫瘤所損失的生命力為1.65%，女性則為1.70%，就外在致癌環境因子之衝擊而言，男、女性分別上升4.73%及2.10%，惟經統計檢定結果只有男性呈現顯著上升之趨勢。
• 中文關鍵字： Gompertz model, Strehler-Mildvan Model, total mortality rate, malignant neoplasm
• 英文關鍵字： Gompertz模式，Strehler-Mildvan模式，總死亡率，惡性腫瘤