• 作者： 劉鶯釧
• 作者服務機構： 國立臺灣大學經濟學系
• 中文摘要： 臺灣地區勞力密集工業之加速成長乃提供了大量勞動力之就業機會，益以國民所得與國民教育水準之提升，家庭結構之轉變等因素加強了婦女參與勞動之能力與意願，婦女勞動力亦普遍為社會所重視。 婦女勞動參與率之變動，可歸結於三個主要因素：一為純人口因素，即婦女工作年齡人口之大小，二為經濟社會所提供給婦女之就業機會，就資料所示，臺灣婦女勞動參與率頗受經濟榮衰之影響，三為婦女之工作意願，此又為年齡、婚姻狀況、子女人數與年齡等之函數。故欲有效地運用婦女勞動力，則必須由這些因素著手。 婦女勞動參與率為測量人力供給之重要指標，其未來變動大小之預測工作實不容忽視。本文乃利用Box與Jenkins所發展之時間序列分析法建立了臺灣婦女勞動參與率之預測模型，發現其具有相當準確之預測能力，以後應可利用本模型續作追及新資料(updating)之預測工作。
• 英文摘要： In the process of economic developmentfemale labor force has been playing an importantrole in Taiwan labor market. On the demandside, the high rate of investment, particularly inlabor intensive manufactures, provided many newemployment opportunities. on the supply side,the rapid increase of per capita income andspread of general education, changes of familystructure raised the desire and ability of womento participate in the labor market. The female participation rate depends onthree sets of determinants: first, on purely de-mographic factor, mainly the relatlve size of thefemale population of working age. Seeond, onthe socio-economic factors, i.e. the employmentopportunies for women. Third, on the desireof women to take up gainfuol employment whichis a function of age, marital status, number andage of children, etc. Female participation rate is an importantindex for the supply of labor force. For thepurpose of decision-making in the future, fore-casting will be a most important issue. Thispaper established a forecasting model of Taiwanfemale participation rate by applying the“TimeSeries Analysis”developed by Box＆Jenkins.This model has high ability of accurate forecastand can be used for updating.
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