• 作者： 鄭文鑠; 蔣志才; 朱曙光
• 作者服務機構： 中央氣象局
• 中文摘要： 淡水河洪水預報中心，根據淡水河上游颱風降雨的實測資料所發佈的洪水預報，時效甚短，
  不易防範，本研究計畫係研究淡水河上游各支流地區之颱風降雨量預報模式，提供12小時、
  24小時及48小時之預測降水量，以增長洪水預報之時效，計為兩部分。
  本文為第一部分，分析1966～1977十二年期間侵襲臺灣而對淡水河流城之雨量的六十七個
  颱風資料，結論要點如下：
  1.侵襲臺灣的颱風，按其路徑，分為八類，其中易於導致淡水河流域發生災害者，為自東
  岸穿過本省，向西及西北方向進行，或經過本省北部近海向西及西北進行的颱風。
  2.根據面積權度，統計分析，顯示凡中心經過臺北與花蓮之間的颱風，帶給淡水河流域之
  總面積雨量為最多，暴雨持續時間較長，影響淡水河，尤其新店溪的流量最大。
  3.繪製因颱風逐漸迫近，導致淡水河流域之雨?區及各支流之降水強度分佈圖，可用以參
  考，來預估淡水河流域可能發生雨?的時刻以及降水強度。n
• 英文摘要： It is intended to make the typhoon precipi-tation forecast models for the three branchesof the Tam-sui Rives Watershed that would aidto extend the valid time of the flood forecastmade by the Tam-Sui River Flood ForecastCenter. This paper is the first part of theresearch, mainly based on the factors of thetyphoon track and the topography to analyzethe typhoon precipitation in the Tam-Sui RiverWatershed over sixty-seven typhoon cases in theperiod of 12 years (1966-1977). The conclusionis as follows: (1) According to the tracks of typhooninvading Taiwan, they can be divided into eighttypes. Those types that cause flood in theTam-Sui River Watershed are from the firsttype to the 4th type, i. e. the ones passingthrough Taiwan from the eastern coast andmoving westward or northwestward. (2) From analysis of the areal precipitationamount, the precipitation multiplied by theareal weighting, it is indicated that the 2ndtype typhoon (center passing through the islandbetween Taipei and Hwalin) brings about themost abounding areal precipitation and longerpersistance of its peak level in the Tam-SuiRiver Watershed, especially in the Hsin-TienChi, one of the three branches, having mucheffect on the run off of the Tam-Sui River. (3) By the figures of the typhoon locationwhich bring forth the peak and the intensity ofprecipitation in the Tam-Sui River Watershed,the possible time of the peak precipitation andquantitative intensity of precipitation for theTam-Sui River Watershed would be estimatedwhen a typhoon is approaching the east ofTaiwan.
• 中文關鍵字： --
• 英文關鍵字： --