• 作者： 段良雄; 張文中; 楊志文
• 作者服務機構： 國立成功大學交通管理科學系
• 中文摘要： 本文以羅機(logit)模式探討旅行時間不確定性對運具選擇模式之影響。所建立的運具選擇模式包括下列幾種：1.將旅行時間視為定值的基礎模式。2.考慮可能延誤之模式。3.考慮旅行時問標準差之模式。4. Senna模式。5.旅行時間係數隨機分配模式。利用由個人訪問調查得到的臺灣地區非假日之城際旅運（臺南至臺北、臺南至臺中、及臺南至高雄）敘述偏好數據進行實證分析，得到以下幾點結論：1.旅運者對於旅行時間不確定性之評價高於對旅行時間之評價。2.公商務旅次之旅運者對於旅行時間不確定性之感受，較非公商務旅次之旅運者強烈。3.旅運者對於旅行時間之評價與旅次長度成反比。4.以旅行時間變數係數值為隨機分配之方式來處理旅行時間的不確定性的結果並不好。
• 英文摘要： This paper used logit models to explore the effect of travel time uncertainty on mode choice. The following modechoice models were established.（1）The base models that treated travel time as fixed. (2) The models that treated the effectof possible travel time delay. (3) The models that treated the effect of travel time standard deviation. (4) Senna model. (5)The models that treated travel time coefficient as randomly distributed. The stated preference data of weekday intercitypassengers was collected through personal interview survey. The empirical analysis found the following results.（1）Thetravelers had a higher evaluation of travel time uncertainty than travel time. (2) The business travelers felt more strong ab-out travel time uncertainty than non-business travelers. (3) The travelers' evaluations of travel time were inversely pro-portionate to trip distance. (4) The randomly distributed travel time coefficient models did not show good results.
• 中文關鍵字： 城際客運; 羅機模式; 敘述偏好; 旅行時間不確定性
• 英文關鍵字： intercity passenger travel; logit model; stated preference; travel time uncertainty