• 作者： 楊靜利
• 作者服務機構： 南華大學社會學研究所
• 中文摘要： This paper simulates five types of financial arrangement for public pension, they are personal saving account (PSA), fully funded system, pay-as-you-go (PAYG)system, modified PAYG system, and partially funded system. For PSA the contribution is highest due to no risk sharing. For fully funded system the contribution is a little less than PSA but enormous fund will be accumulated while the management determines the success and failure of the program. No fund will be accumulated in PAYG but PAYG is very sensitive to population aging. Unfortunately the speed of population aging in Taiwan will be very fast in the near future. Modified PAYG system slows down the speed of contribution growth but cannot change the trend. Partially funded system decreases the amount of fund but it is still huge. The scenarios indicate that due to the speed of population aging, the pension program in Taiwan necessarily brings either a heightened growth in contribution or a huge accumulating of fund in process. Since PAYG system is similar to the family support and fully funded similar to the personal saving, we suggest closer scrutiny of the traditional supporting methods for possible solutions to the dilemma entailed in the public pension program, that is, deferred pay-as-yougo system.
• 英文摘要： 本文模擬五種不同機制下的年金制度之財務狀況，分別為個人帳戶之儲蓄制、保險型態之完全儲備制、隨收隨付制、修正隨收隨付制、以及部份儲備制。個人的儲蓄帳戶由於沒有風險分攤的效果，所以價格最為昂貴；完全儲備制則納入風險分攤的機制，保費得以降低，但風險分攤即統籌統支，將累積龐大的準備金達GDP之數倍，基金管理則成為制度成敗關鍵；修正儲備制雖然降低準備金的額度，但準備金仍是非常龐大的數額，其投資運用與政治上干預仍是制度運作的重要威脅。隨收隨付制則無準備金投資運用的問題，但易受人口結構變化的影響，五十年內變化幅度約在三至四倍之間；修正隨收隨付制將一年平衡期間擴張為較長時間，只是改變初期的費率水準，並沒有延緩費率調漲的速度。最後，我們乃建議前期採取儲備制的方式，但以隨收隨付制為目標，而提出「延遲給付」措施。
• 中文關鍵字： Public Pension; Personal saving account; Fully funded system; Pay-as-you-go system; Deferred pay-as-you-go system
• 英文關鍵字： 公共年金；個人儲蓄；儲備制；隨收隨付制；延遲給付修正隨收隨付制