• 作者： 瞿海源
• 作者服務機構： 中央研究院民族學研究所
• 中文摘要： 在新的知識和現代科技與醫療的影響下，巫術行為可能會日趨減少；但在日漸複雜而又變化快速的社會裡，因社會上不確定性的增加也可能使巫術持續存在。臺灣社會在近年來由於政治經濟變遷所形成的不確定性有明顯增加的跡象，人們的術數、巫術和宗教行為有特殊變化的可能性。 本研究運用1985和1990年兩次臺灣地區社會變遷基本調查的資料，試圖對十種術數、巫術和宗教行為進行探討。結果發現人們的術數行為在這五年間有顯著增加的現象，而巫術行為的頻率則大多在實質上少有變化，宗教行為則有增有減。在各種行為的變異上，民間信仰者多顯著地多於其他宗教的信徒和無宗教信仰者，教育對巫術行為有明顯的負面影響。 各種巫術行為這樣的變遷和變異顯現了兩個重要的理論問題。一是在社會不確定性增加時，比較精緻而有創新的術數行為增加而傳統的巫術則未有變化，這顯示了所謂巫術衰落並不是簡單的現象。另一則是民間信仰與各種巫術之間有顯著的相關，在理論上將宗教與巫術加以區隔的傳統亦有修正的必要，但這也顯示臺灣民間信仰具有濃厚的巫術性質。
• 英文摘要： Under the influence of new knowledge and technology, people's religious and magic be-havior tends to decline; however, an increase in uncertainty related to rapid and complicatedsocial change may, in fact, result in stable or even increasing belief in magic. Due to Taiwan'sdramatic political and economic changes from 1985 to 1990, there may have been an increaseof magical behavior during this time. In this paper I discuss complex and meaningful changes in people's behavior in religiousmagic based on data from a five-year Social Change Survey currently being conducted in Taiwan.Magic in sophisticated forms with modern innovations (i.e., fortune telling and geomancy)apparently is being accepted by a growing number of Taiwanese; on the other hand, thosetraditional forms of magic that lack any new breakthroughs (i.e., asking for a shaman's helpto pacify a disturbed baby) appear to have remained stable. The data shows that believers infolk religions engage in a wider variety of magic-related behavior when compared to practitionersof other religions or nonreligious individuals. In addition, educational attainment has a directeffect on belief in magic. I address two theoretical implications from the data: (1) a decline in religious magic is nota definite phenomenon when rapid social change affects levels of uncertainty; and (2) thereexists an ambiguous distinction between religion and belief in magic in Taiwanese folk religion.
• 中文關鍵字： 術數; 巫術; 宗教; 社會變遷; 臺灣地區社會變遷基本調查
• 英文關鍵字： --