- 作者: 王業鈞
- 作者服務機構: 海軍軍官學校
- 中文摘要: 經由對〞地表層-積雨雲模式〞之敏感度測驗,吾人已獲得某夏季雷陣雨降雨曲線之最佳模擬。在已測試之475個case中,僅有一個case之各預測值接近觀測值。其所預測之總降雨量為17.Omm,較觀測值17.5mm僅差0.5mm。降雨曲線之形態亦與記錄曲線相符:降雨曲線變化平滑,且僅有一最大值。同時,預測之降雨開始時間與降雨強度最高時間較實際時間僅各早約30分鐘。由於此敏感度測驗是在理想狀況下進行,此case應可視為最接近實際者。 因為共測試475個case而僅一case接近實際。故可推論所觀測之陣雨係在極具關鍵性之狀況下產生。同時,亦可由結果推論所觀測之降雨係由一淺積雨所產生,正如Takahashi(1977)在夏威夷所觀測者。
- 英文摘要: By performing a sensitivity test on a PBLcumulus cloud model, we have obtained an optimal simula-tion of a recorded precipitation curve of a local summer afternoon shower which occurred in the coastalregion of Taiwan. Among the results of 475 cases being tested, we have found that in one case the resultsare quite close to the observations. The predicted total rainfall is 17.0 mm which differs from the observed17.5 mm by .5 mm only. The pattern of the rainfall rate curve is close to the observed one in that it variessmoothly and has only one peak. Also, the time of onset and the time of peak rainfall rate each differ fromthe observation by about 30 min. Because the experiments are performed under idealized conditions,this case is considered to be the best approximation to the reality. Because only one out of 475 casesbeing tested approximates the reality well, we have inferred that the observed shower is produced undervery critical conditions. In addition, we have also inferred that the observed shower was produced from ashallow cumulus cloud similar to the cases observed by Takahashi[7] in Hawaii.
- 中文關鍵字: PBL-cumulus cloud model sensitivity test critical conditions
- 英文關鍵字: --