• 作者： 許銘熙; 鄧慰先; 吳富春
• 作者服務機構： 國立台灣大學農業工程學系
• 中文摘要： 本文為因應淹水預警系統建立與洪災消減之需要，發展有限差分漫地流淹水模式與核胞淹水模式。有限差分漫地流淹水模式能精確模擬淹水流況，但模擬費時為其缺點，不能在預報前置時間內完成淹水模擬。為配合未來淹水預報模式必須迅速完成淹水模擬，本研究另發展核胞淹水模式，若將研究區域內合理化分淹水核胞，則可有效完成淹水模擬。但核胞淹水模式仍有諸多待定係數，本文以二維漫地流淹水模式之一百年重現期降雨八掌溪流域淹水模擬結果，作為檢定核胞淹水模式待定係數之依據。使用檢定完成之淹水核胞模式進行淹水模擬，不僅獲得如有限差分漫地流淹水模式相同精度之模擬結果，且模擬時問僅為其三十一分之一。本文使用賀伯颱風之淹水記錄進行淹水核胞模式之驗證，並將核胞淹水模式應用於2年、5年、10年、25年、50年與100年重現期之降雨八掌溪流域淹水模擬，研究成果可推求不同重現期降雨所造成之淹水範圍。
• 英文摘要： Two inundation models, a finite difference overland model and a cell inundation model, are developedas an inundation forecasting model for use in a flood-inundation warning system for damage mitigation.The simulated results from the finite difference overland model are highly accurate；however, this modelis not suitable for emergency forecasting due to its long computation time. The cell inundation modelis very efficient because the flow exchanges between the divided cells in the simulated area are conceptuallysimplified for fast simulation．The many parameters of the cell model are calibrated in accordance withthe simulated results of the finite difference overland model．The average computation time of the cellinundation model is approximately 1/31 of that of the finite difference overland model．The simulatedresults reveal that the cell inundation model developed here inherits the advantages of the accuracy ofthe finite difference overland model and the efficiency of a conceptual model. The observed inundationzones of typhoon Herb are employed to verify the cell inundation model．It is also applied to simulatethe inundation in the Pa-chang Creek basin under design rainfalls of 2-, 5-，10-，25-，50-，and 100-yearreturn periods, respectively．The results are accurate enough to be used to map out the inundation areafor the various design rainfalls．
• 中文關鍵字： cell inundation model; finite difference overland model; Pa-chang Creek basin; flood-inundation forecasting system; typhoon Herb
• 英文關鍵字： --