• 作者： 花敬群；張金鶚
• 作者服務機構： Department of Land Economics National Chengchi University Taipei, Taiwan R.O.C.
• 中文摘要： In Taiwan, the housing market can be divided into two sub-markets: existing and pre-sales. The existing market is similar to a spot market. The pre-sales market is like a futures (forward) market since the goods in the pre-sales market are the housing units under construction (Chang and Ward (1993)). We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher (1992) and DiPasquale and Wheaton (1992, 1994, 1996) and use the data obtained from the housing markets in Taiwan to analyze price and quantity relationship between the existing housing market and the pre-sales housing market. We calculate the rate at which the market price adjusts to the long-run equilibrium in both the existing and the pre-sales markets. The results show that the adjustment rate in the pre-sales market is greater than that in the existing market. In other words, the pre-sales housing price adjusts to the long run equilibrium faster than the existing housing price. Therefore the pre-sales system can improve market efficiency. We also calculate the rate at which the housing supply quantity adjusts to the long-run equilibrium in both the existing and the pre-sales markets. No significant relationship can be detected between these two rates.
• 英文摘要： 台灣的住宅市場主要由成屋市場與預售屋市場構成，此二者在理論上的關係類似住宅存 量—流量模型(stock-flow model)，但是相關研究大多止於靜態分析，並未探討住宅生產期間落差的影響。如果新建住宅供給對生產期間落差反應能力低，則住宅流量將無法有效調整存 量市場的供需落差，反而可能出現蛛網理論(cobweb theory)所描述的當期價格與供給量反向波動的結果。本文以成屋市場與預售屋市場價格與供給量的關係，重新界定住宅存量市場與 流量市場的相互影響結構，修正住宅存量—流量模型以符合台灣住宅市場的特性。
  
  實證結果顯示，台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的價量關係，並不完全符合存量—流量模 型，也不完全符合蛛網現象，表示新建住宅供給對生產期間落差的反應能力十分有限。此外，成屋與預售屋市場的價格波動均有促進市場向長期均衡收斂的功能，且預售屋市場價格 的調整速率高於成屋市場，顯示預售屋制度有促進市場調整的作用；但是預售屋供給量波動並無法發揮調節成屋市場供需落差的功能，顯示台北市住宅供給量資訊的市場功能仍未明顯 發揮，這也是為何近年來市場餘屋大量增加下，市場價格下跌卻十分有限的原因之一。
• 中文關鍵字： Stock-Flow Model, Price-Volume Relationship, Existing Housing Market, Pre-sales Housing Market.
• 英文關鍵字： 存量-流量模型、成屋市場、預售屋市場、價量關係