• 作者： 戴政; 陳美惠
• 作者服務機構： 中央研究院統計科學研究所; 國立陽明醫學院遺傳學研究所; 國立政治大學統計研究所
• 中文摘要： 在法醫學上判定非婚生子女之生父取決於遺傳或非遺傳證據。使用遺傳證據的作法是檢定提出控訴之母親及其子女之遺傳標識基因與被控訴之一男子間的標識基因是否符合孟德爾定律，如不符合即證明該男子清白，否則就須要計算“生父機率(paternity probability)”，以供法庭上之判案證據。本研究目的在探討現在廣被使用的二項計算生父機率的統計方法：(1)父系指數(paternity index method)及(2)不排除法(nonexclusion method)間的異同優劣及其適用情形；並另提出一個以不排除集合為出發點的鑑定方法，並以具二對偶基因的單基因座為例說明三種方法所計算出的生父機率間的不同表現。
• 英文摘要： Forensic judgment of paternity depends on genetic and nongenetic evidence. Sometimes genetic markertests can provide clear evidence to exclude a falsely accused man, but they do not always succeed. Onthe other hand, if the accusation is true, the alleged father will not ever be excluded by genetic markertests. When a nonexclusion case occurs after one or more marker tests, a report of paternity probabilityis required in the court. The current methods for calculating the paternity probability are the "paternityindex method" and the "nonexclusion method." A number of recent articles have openly debated thefallacies, validity and utility of both methods. This paper briefly reviews the two methods and proposes anon-excluded set method along with examples for illustrating the various patterns of paternity probabilitiesof the three methods.
• 中文關鍵字： Bayes method; genetic marker; nonexclusion; paternity index.
• 英文關鍵字： --