• 作者： 陳正和
• 作者服務機構： 輔仁大學社會學系
• 中文摘要： 有關經濟變動與離婚率變動之關係在美國戰前與戰後有不同的影響模式。在戰前離婚率在經濟景氣時上升而在經濟不景氣時下降；而在戰後，離婚率則在經濟景氣時下降而在不景氣時上升。對於這些現象的實證研究結果學者提出機會作用與動機作用的理論解釋，但是對如何量度機會作用與動機作用以及其間造成離婚率變動的不同社會經濟環境之因果關係至今尚未有實證研究加以探討。晚近實證研究發現臺灣戰後呈現與美國戰後相同的經濟變動與離婚率變動的影響模式；但其塑造離婚率變動的社會經濟環境則與美國稍有不同。本研究嘗試深入探討戰後影響臺灣離婚率變動的因果機制，並進一步比較戰前臺灣經濟變動與離婚率變動之可能因果關係。研究結果發現機會作用與動機作用是解釋社會經濟背景因素與離婚率變動的主要中間機制；臺灣戰前與戰後亦呈現與美國戰前與戰後相同的模式。而且傳統解釋離婚率變動的理論觀點其作用力多為間接而非原先理論所預期的直接作用關係。
• 英文摘要： The relationships between economic conditions and the divorce rate have been well theorized andempirically supported for both pre-war and post-war U.S. societies. A recent study using post-war Taiwan dataalso reported a similar pattern between economic conditions and changes in divorce rate. However, therelationship between percent of higher education (rather than female labor force participation or percentageof the population aged 20-29) and changes in the divorce rate was fonud statistically significant for the case ofTaiwan. This casts some doubt on the possible differences of the socio-economic conditions of the divorce ratefor the two societies. By using time-series data this study explores the possible causal mechanisms of thedeterminants (including the opportunity effect and the desire effect) of changes in divorce rates for both pre-war and post-war Taiwan. The results support the roles of the opportunity effect and the desire effect ascritical mechanisms mediating the relationships between socio-economic background variables and changes indivorce rates for both pre-war and post-war Taiwan, with rather similar pattern as that reported in the U. S.society. The indirect rather than direct effects as predicted by the theoretical perspectives on changes indivorce rates were found for both pre-war and post-war Taiwan.
• 中文關鍵字： 經濟變動; 離婚率變動; 機會作用; 動機作用
• 英文關鍵字： economic conditions; divorce rate; time-series data; the opportunity effect; the desire effect