- 作者: 雷萬清; 林景行; 陳毓雷; 林正中
- 作者服務機構: 台灣大學土木研究所; 空軍通信電子學校
- 中文摘要:
颱風暴雨量乃指蘭陽溪流域而言。先採集十八年之資料,整理以後,以選擇迴歸法分
析,最後得到三個預報方程式(高次複式迴歸方程)可用以預測未來廿四小時之颱風位置
及一日內蘭陽溪流域內之降雨量。前者校驗結果甚為優良,較以前各種客觀預報方法為佳
。但雨量推估之效果,不如理想,尤以極端值之雨量為然。因此繼續用天氣學觀點採取修
正步驟,經收集十二次曾致本流域洪災之個案詳加分析比較後,得到各有關天氣學因素之
修正值,大為增進極端值之暴雨量預估準確率。最後之梯程圖係用以連結客觀預測步驟及
修正步驟,使其成為一體,俾供預測作業人員參照,運用決心而達最終之暴雨量預估值,
以供洪水預報作投入用。
因本年無強烈颱風通過台灣,故未利用本研究計畫所作的颱風暴雨可降雨量為洪水預
報之雨量資料,而採用1969年艾爾西颱風雨量作洪水預報試算,結果尚稱良好,觀測的洪
?流量為4020 cms,洪?發生時間為距離降雨中心時間為5小時,而洪水預報的洪?流量
是4272 cms,洪?發生時間距降雨中心時間為5小時35分。又以1969年芙勞西颱風作洪水
預報試算,其預報之洪?流量為4316 cms,洪?發生時間距降雨中心時間為5小時,而觀
測的流量為4320 cms,洪?發生時間距降雨中心時間為14小時綜觀以上結果,僅芙勞西颱
風的洪?發生時間其觀測值與預報值相去較遠,可能係因芙勞西颱風非單獨暴雨的原故。
t - 英文摘要: The quantitative prediction of typhoon precipitation is used for the particulararea of Nan-young river watershed. Data covering 18 years were collected andanalyzed by screening regression technique, and ended in three predicting equa-tions which are curvilinear multiple regression in nature. The predictands are thefuture (24 hrs.)position of storm and the amount of rainfall within the period,while the predictors are parameters which describt the climatological backgroundof the said storm and some local effects of Nan-young river watershed. Verificationshows that the prediction of typhoon movement excels all existing objective me-thods, but prediction of rainfall falls short of the actual requirement when extremeconditions are concerned. As a remedy measure, corrections from the synoptic viewpoint are made through investigation of 12 cases that did cause floods in the areaof interest. A dicision ladder is prepared to serve the forecaster as a guideline toreach the final estimation of heavy rainfall associated with typhoons. The resultthus obtained will be used as the input source for the flood forecasting. It uses the parallel hydrologic system analysis to make flood forecasting forthis watershed. It is good fitted on flood peak and peak time forecasting for theElsie typhoon in 1969. The calculated flood peak is 4272 CMS. Its peak time is 5hours and 35 minutes. The measured flood peak is 4020 CMS. Its peak time is 5hours. But for the Floosie typhoon in 1969. the calculated flood peak is 4316 CMS.The measured flood peak is 4320 CMS. But the calculated peak time 5 hours and35 minutes is shorter than measured peak time 14 hours. Maybe it is because ofits not a single storm.
- 中文關鍵字: --
- 英文關鍵字: --