- 作者: 史光榮; 楊宏澤; 梁天旗; 黃慶連
- 作者服務機構: 國立成功大學電機工程研究所; 中原大學電機工程研究所; 台灣電力公司台南營業處
- 中文摘要: 本文描述應用灰色系統建模技術於預測電力系統年尖峰負載及其發生日期的方法。在年尖峰負載預測方面,本文提出一新的GM(1,1)與GM(1,2)混合模式;而在年尖峰負載發生日期預測方面,本文則使用拓樸預測的方法。由於灰色系統建模技術只需很少的歷史資料量(約3至7筆),即可建立高精確度之預測模式,正符合年尖峰負載歷史資料相當少(一年只有一筆)的特性。所發展之模式經實際應用於預測台電系統年尖峰負載及其發生日期,並與現有方法比較,以證實其有效性。
- 英文摘要: Applications of grey system modeling techniques to prediction of power system yearly peak loadsand their occurring dates are described in this paper. For yearly peak load forecasting, a new hybrid greymodel of .GM(1,1) in conjunction with GM(1,2) is proposed. Corresponding dates on which peak loadsoccur are predicted by using the topological forecasting method. Complying with the characteristics ofminimal historical yearly peak load records (only one peak load value for a year), the grey system techniquesused in this paper only require a small amount of historical data (3 to 7 points of data) to set up a highlyaccurate forecasting model. The effectiveness of the developed models is demonstrated by predictingthe actual Taiwan Power (Taipower) yearly peak-loads and their related occurring dates.
- 中文關鍵字: system modeling; yearly peak load and occurring date forecasting; topological forecasting
- 英文關鍵字: --